Whilst the attention of the world has been drawn to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, the plight of Cuba has been somewhat sidelined. For the moment, the embattled Latino regime is clinging on, but just how long can a country function without any energy…?
Cuba is ruled by a hard-line communist regime, which took power in the 1960’s. Throughout the 1970’s, 80’s and 90’s, the state was heavily backed by their ideological brethren in Russia, China and parts of Latin America. Life was not straight-forward for Cubans though, because of their proximity to the USA (only 90 miles away) and the fact that America had placed various sanctions on the communist regime, after so many US business interests were nationalised (“stolen by Fidel Castro”).
Post-Millennium, support from Russia and China waned and Cuba was left increasingly reliant on Mexico and Venezuela for its energy needs. The Caribbean island has extremely limited domestic oil and gas resources, accounting for less than 25% of national demand, which leaves them heavily dependent on overseas supplies. In 2025, Cuba imported 1.2m barrels per day (bpd), with 10% coming from Russia, 25% from Mexico and a whopping 60% from Venezuela. The relationship with Venezuela was deep and at times unusual. Cargoes of oil were often paid for by Cuba, not in cash, but through the provision of Cuban Doctors or Security Services (Maduro’s Presidential Guard was Cuban).
With the toppling of President Maduro by US Forces in January, Cuba’s world changed. Venezuelan shipments ceased, as did Mexico’s, amid US threats to apply tariffs to any country supplying the Communist regime. Russia did step-in with some volume replacement – around 700,000 barrels of urals crude arrived in March – but this was a one-off and no further Russian oil has arrived since then. On top of the US embargo on oil and shipping, Cuba’s foreign-exchange constraints further restrict its ability to secure replacement fuel. As a result, the nation’s 4 refineries (with a combined notional throughput of 130,000 bpd) are operating at around 10% capacity, whilst customers at the island’s 500 or so petrol stations are suffering hours-long queues. Even then, the Government has set a maximum purchase of 20 litres. On the black market, diesel prices have reached as high as $30 per gallon (£6 per litre!) and shortages here have left garbage trucks unable to collect rubbish and food imports rotting at the ports, for want of onward logistics.
Problems have been compounded by Cuba’s archaic power sector, which relies on oil and natural gas for 80% of its generation. Electrical infrastructure was already reeling from 2025’s Hurricane Melissa (which severely disrupted eastern Cuba), but the lack of supply affecting the whole country, now means an almost continuous breakdown of power. Rolling blackouts are routine across Cuba, with daily outages of 20+ hours being reported in some areas. Provinces outside of Havana are most affected, but even in the capital, severe daily outages disrupt water supply, food preservation, sanitation and hospital operations.
So how long can Cuba hold out? Some supplies are arriving, although this is mostly in the form of humanitarian aid, rather than energy. The Brazilian air force has flown in powdered milk for Cuba’s children and Canada ($8m) and the EU ($16m) have sent food aid. Mexico has also provided humanitarian assistance, but despite a promise from Pemex (Mexico’s State Oil Co) that they would honour existing oil supply contracts, no oil has been sent to Cuba since January. Russia has labelled US actions in Cuba as piracy, but no oil has been shipped since the urals delivery in March. Ultimately, any form of commercial activity or foreign investment is extremely difficult as long as US sanctions remain in place.
In an alternative universe, Cuba might have had a “get out of jail card”, in that they have pursued renewable energy for decades. Around 60 solar parks have been built over the past two years (all supplied and funded by China) and solar now supplies around 10% of Cuba’s electricity – up from 0% only 5 years ago. However, Cuba does not have the luxury of time to keep building this capacity and solar power won’t address the desperate shortage of liquid fuels. So inevitably, Cuba has been brought to the negotiating table. Over the summer, 176 reforms were announced in the biggest shake-up of the economy since the revolution of 1959. The reforms will allow private banks to operate, the development of real estate and stakes to be taken in state owned companies. Perhaps more importantly, some private fuel imports (from the USA of course) will be permitted and 200 businesses have been authorised as wholesale distributors. In time, this should allow somewhere in the region of 1m barrels of crude and refined oil per month into the country, but that is still a drop in the ocean versus the pre-embargo consumption of 1.8m barrels per day. It also certainly will not be enough to placate the long-suffering people of Cuba, nor a belligerent US Administration. This one will run for a few months yet, but it is difficult to see how the current Cuban regime can survive unless it makes even greater reforms, compromises its communist system and comes to terms with the USA.
