Monthly Pricing - 02/12/2019

After opening November below $60/bbl, Brent Crude rose steadily, reaching a high of $64.60/bbl in the final week on hopes of a breakthrough in the US-China trade war.

GBP maintained a limited 0.02 spread between 1.277 – 1.297 vs USD, as market confidence in a Conservative victory in the upcoming election helped keep Sterling afloat.

Domestic pressure on both sides of the Pacific as Trump faces impeachment proceedings while China’s Xi Jinping grapples with Hong Kong’s 16th week of civil unrest.

Price Drivers

Supply OPEC expects supply cut from 35 - 32.8m bpd by 2024. US output at record 12.46m bpd – IEA predicts oil glut.
Demand China’s net crude demand stabilised according to Nov figures. US crude inventories in Nov. 3% higher than 5-year average.
Geo-Political Iran and Iraq face worsening civic demonstrations. US troops in Syria reportedly fighting ISIS militants.