Brent crude futures traded at $73.1/bbl at the onset of the month, supported by the uncertainty of the direction of the Israel-Iran conflict following a series of direct confrontations in the previous month. Whilst Iran continued operating its proxy forces across the Middle East region, geopolitical premiums were offset by rising concerns of decelerating demand. Brent crude futures slipped to $71.04/bbl by mid-month after the release of Chinese customs data revealed a 9% decline in crude imports during October compared to the same period last year. Deflationary pressures persisted in the Chinese economy as CPI data revealed that inflation rose less than market anticipations by 0.3% in October compared to 2023 figures, indicating weakening demand across Chinese markets. Coupled with concerns of decelerating demand growth for crude oil, fears of oversupply mounted after the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted global oil supply to exceed demand in 2025 by a 1.15 million/bpd supply surplus on account of non-OPEC crude production. Upside risks due to escalating global tensions persisted in the latter half of the month, supporting prices to $75.17/bbl as the Russia-Ukraine war heightened risks of nuclear threats. Nevertheless, premiums were capped following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah during the final week of the month as concerns of a potential crude supply disruption in the region were relieved. Brent crude futures traded at $73/bbl by month-end with trader attention shifting to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in December which is expected to address the potential global oversupply of crude oil.

The Sterling (GBP) experienced a downward trajectory against the USD during November, opening at $1.296 against the USD at the beginning of the month and settling to around $1.268 against the USD in the latest trading sessions. Donald Trump’s success in the U.S. presidential election during the first week of November led to a rise of the U.S. dollar price index to the highest levels in almost two-years as the markets project that Trump’s economic policies and protectionist plans may spark further inflationary pressures. U.S. economic indicators signalled robust growth of the U.S. economy, further fuelling the momentum of the dollar. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose at an annual pace of 2.6%, whilst GDP grew by 2.8% in the third quarter due to strong consumer spending. Though the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at the beginning of the month, market forecasts of further rate cuts diminished due to the strengthening economy. In the UK, the Bank of England also cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point, whilst CPI data revealed an increase by 2.3% in the 12 months to October, exceeding market expectations of a 2.2% growth rate. However, GBP depreciated to six-month lows at $1.251 during the latter half of November as GDP data showed that the UK economy stalled in the third quarter as GDP grew by 0.1%, failing to meet market expectations. By month-end, the GBP regained some ground towards $1.27 against the USD as investors became cautious of Trump’s upcoming plans to impose further trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China.

Geopolitical events played a crucial role in the price movements of brent crude futures during November due to the potential impact on economic activity and crude supplies. The war between Russia and Ukraine escalated after Russia deployed over 10,000 North Korean troops to the Russian Kursk region, strengthening Russia’s position in the conflict. Subsequently, Joe Biden’s authorisation of Ukraine to use U.S. long-range missiles against Russia prompted Ukraine’s employment of other Western-produced artilleries. This triggered Putin’s revision of the Russian nuclear doctrine, expanding the conditions under which Russia may use nuclear weapons, thus worsening tensions between Russia and other global powers. The Middle East region endured further turmoil throughout November as Israel continued its attacks on Gaza and Lebanon whilst Iran continued to use its’ proxy forces in the resistance against Israel. However, fears of a wider-regional war were alleviated by month-end due to the U.S.-mediated ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, though traders continued to monitor the affairs following reports of ceasefire violations.