Brent crude started the month with a 7% increase from the end of March following the unexpected announcement of further output cuts by OPEC+, trading at $84.93/bbl and gradually rising to $87.33/bbl by midmonth as a result. However, Brent crude declined steadily towards $80/bbl in the last week of April, as concerns about a global economic downturn continued to weaken energy demand, outweighing prospects of tighter global supplies and higher fuel demand from China.

GBP traded at $1.25 against USD at the beginning of April, reaching its highest point since June 2022 as investors welcomed the prospect of further interest rate hikes from the Bank of England. GBP remained near an over 10-month high throughout April, marginally declining to $1.24 against USD by the end of the month, as a mixed economic outlook persisted with ONS data highlighting UK retail sales fell more than expected in March, alongside Markit PMI survey data indicating that Britain’s GDP expanded to a one-year-high in April.

The beginning of April saw a shock to markets with an unexpected announcement from OPEC+ of further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million bpd from May, tightening global supply and amplifying market volatility. Meanwhile, Iraq’s Federal Government and the Kurdistan’s Regional Government reached an agreement to resume northern oil exports in early April, after a long-standing arbitration case against Turkey. In Russia, the Deputy Finance Minister stated that the export price of Russian crude had risen to almost $60/bbl, nearing the G7 price cap, following record crude oil sales of 2.26 million bpd to China the month prior. Elsewhere, industrial action continued to rise, with ongoing pension reform strikes in France, a two-day strike disrupting oil production in the North Sea and Exxon in Nigeria declaring force majeure following in-house workers union strikes.