Monthly Pricing - 01/10/2019

After starting the month below $59/bbl, Brent Crude broke $69/bbl following attacks on Saudi oil facilities, before falling back to $61/bbl after production was restored.

GBP reached a two-month high of 1.25 vs USD after the House of Lords passed a bill to block no-deal Brexit, before falling to 1.23 as the BoE hinted at a cut in interest rates.

The attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities on 14/09 affected 5.7m bpd of production (5% of global supply), causing oil prices to rise over 13% and a 4 ppl increase in UK diesel.

Price Drivers

Supply Saudi output restored above 5m bpd by month-end. Venezuela short of refined fuel despite huge reserves.
Demand BP forecasts oil demand growth at less than 1m bpd in 2019. Asian refiners increased EU oil imports after Saudi attacks.
Geo-Political EU sanctions imposed upon 7 Venezuelan officials. Prorogation of UK Parliament deemed unlawful.