Monthly Pricing - 01/09/2020

Brent crude traded in a $44.00-$46.00/bbl range throughout August, boosted by recovering oil demand despite escalating US/China tensions.

GBP rose to an eight-month high of 1.327 against USD in August in response to optimism over a Brexit agreement and continued high unemployment claims in the US.

Adverse weather in late August forced a shutdown of more than 80% of US Gulf Coast Production, a region responsible for c. 25% of total US output.

Price Drivers

Supply Additional cuts of 2.31mbpd required in Sep/Oct to offset OPEC+ non-compliance. Atlantic storms Marco and Laura force production shutdown in the Gulf of Mexico.
Demand US crude stocks fall for 5 consecutive weeks, totaling 28.8m barrels. OPEC+ report a 9.1mbpd drop in oil demand for 2020; a 100kbpd downward revision.
Geo-Political Potential terrorist attack on Syrian gas pipeline causes nationwide blackouts. US and Chinese officials confirm commitment to Phase One trade agreement.