Monthly Pricing - 01/10/2022

Brent crude traded at $92/bbl at the beginning of September and despite rising to a month-high of $96/bbl, declined to $89/bbl by the end of the month, due to weakened demand caused by a global recession and monetary tightening, alongside the dollar reaching its strongest price in two decades.

GBP traded at $1.15 against USD at the start of the month, reaching $1.17 before declining to $1.10, ending the month at its lowest level since 1985 as the Bank of England raised interest rates to combat inflationary pressure and the UK government announced a controversial tax cut plan. Based on current wholesale diesel prices, a five-cent drop in GBP equates to a c. 3ppl increase in the price of UK diesel.

Following Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a partial moblisation of troops, the European Commission is proposing a price cap on Russian oil as part of its latest sanctions package against Moscow over its war with Ukraine, despite Russia stating it will stop supplying crude oil and petroleum products to countries that impose a price cap.

Price Drivers

Supply An Argus Media report released in September indicated that OPEC+ oil production fell short of its target level in August by a record 3.58 million bpd. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal continued to stall throughout September, with the governments of France, Germany and the UK issuing a joint statement suggesting they have “serious doubts” about Iran’s commitment.
Demand The EIA US stock reports highlighted a net increase of 12.1 million barrels of crude in September, indicating a significant decrease in demand. The demand forecasts released by OPEC remained unchanged in September, projecting 3.1 million bpd in 2022 and 2.7 million bpd in 2023, citing indications that major economies were fairing better than expected.  
Geopolitical Vladimir Putin ordered the partial moblisation of military reservists following battlefield setbacks, in a move the EU labelled a “very dangerous nuclear gamble”, as the Ukraine-Russia war continues. Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly facing criticism from supposed allies, Chinese President Xi Jinping and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, over the Ukraine war in recent weeks.